Why the Year 2026 Will Be an Unprecedented Year for the Indian Solar Observation Mission

Solar activity visualization
A coronal mass ejection is much bigger than Earth

Regarding Aditya-L1, the year 2026 is expected to be like no other.

This marks the initial occasion the observatory – which was placed in orbit last year – will be able to watch our star when it reaches the peak of its solar cycle.

As per research, this occurs roughly every 11 years as the Sun's magnetic poles flip – the Earth equivalent could be the North and South poles changing places.

It's a time marked by intense activity. It sees our star transition from calm to stormy and is marked by a huge increase in the frequency of solar eruptions and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) – massive bubbles of fire that erupt from the solar corona.

Composed of charged particles, a CME may have a mass of billions of tons and reach a speed exceeding 2,000 miles each second. It can head out in any direction, including towards the Earth. At top speed, the journey takes a CME 15 hours to traverse the 150 million km Earth-Sun distance.

"In the normal or low-activity times, the Sun emits a few solar eruptions a day," explains a leading scientist. "In 2026, it's anticipated them to be 10 or more each day."

Researching coronal mass ejections is one of the most important research goals for the Indian maiden solar mission. Firstly, because the ejections provide an opportunity to learn about the Sun in the center of our planetary system, and secondly, since events occurring on the solar surface threaten infrastructure on our planet and in orbit.

Aurora display
Northern lights illuminated the darkness across America in November

Impacts on Our Planet and Orbital Systems

Coronal mass ejections rarely pose a direct threat to human life, but they do affect life on Earth through generating magnetic disturbances affecting conditions in near space, where about 11,000 satellites, comprising Indian satellites, orbit.

"The most beautiful manifestations from solar eruptions include northern lights, being direct evidence that charged particles from our star are travelling to Earth," the expert explains.

"But they can also cause electronic systems on a satellite malfunction, disable electrical networks and affect weather and communication satellites."

Historical Solar Incidents

  • The most powerful solar storm in history was the 1859 solar superstorm which knocked out telegraph lines across the globe
  • In 1989, sections of Quebec's power grid failed, leaving six million people in darkness for hours
  • During late 2015, solar activity disrupted air traffic control, causing chaos in Sweden and some other European air hubs
  • Recently in 2022, a CME caused 38 commercial satellites being lost

With capability to see events on the Sun's corona and detect solar activity or a coronal mass ejection in real time, measure its heat at origin and track its path, it can work as a forewarning to switch off power grids and satellites redirecting them out of harm's way.

Solar corona during eclipse
The Sun's corona can be seen when the Moon blocks the Sun from Earth

The Mission's Unique Advantage

There are other space observatories watching our star, Aditya-L1 has an advantage compared to rivals regarding studying the solar atmosphere.

"The instrument is the exact size that lets it effectively simulate the Moon, completely blocking the Sun's photosphere and allowing it continuous observation of nearly the entire of the corona 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, even during solar events," notes the researcher.

In other words, the coronagraph functions as an artificial Moon, blocking the solar glare to let researchers continuously observe the dim solar atmosphere – a feat the real Moon provide only during specific moments.

Additionally, it's unique that can study solar events in visible light, letting it determine a CME's temperature and thermal output – crucial data indicating how strong of an eruption when traveling our direction.

Preparation for Peak Period

In preparation for next year's peak solar activity period, scientists worked together analyzing the data gathered from a major solar eruption recorded by the mission has recorded until now.

It originated on 13 September 2024 at 00:30 GMT. The eruption's weight totaled billions of tons – the iceberg that struck the ship was 1.5 million tonnes.

At origin, the heat reached extreme levels with energy equivalent comparable to 2.2 million megatons of explosives – in comparison nuclear weapons used in Japan were 15 kilotons in scale respectively.

Although these figures seem incredibly large, the scientist describes it as a moderate event.

The space rock which wiped out prehistoric life on our planet was 100 million megatons and when solar peak occurs, there may be CMEs carrying power equal to even more than that.

"In my view this eruption we analyzed to have occurred when the Sun of typical solar activity. This establishes the benchmark for future comparison assessing what is in store during solar maximum occurs," he says.

"The learnings from this will help us developing protective measures to be adopted safeguarding spacecraft in orbit. Additionally, they'll aid achieving a better understanding of near-Earth space," he adds.

Lisa Hamilton
Lisa Hamilton

A data scientist and writer passionate about demystifying probability and strategic analysis for practical applications.

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