Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Selection Process
Several figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.