Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”